Paralysis in the movement of goods to Syria through Lebanon .. The measure will be a disaster on the money of the Syrians
The economist and the President of the Syrian-Armenian Business Council Leon Zaki stressed that the crisis in Lebanon is currently due to the popular protests movement, which caused direct and significant damage to the banking sector, crippling the import of goods into Syria through Lebanon, the only outlet for Syrian imports due to the sanctions imposed on the Syrian economy. Because of the difficulty of financing and transfer through Lebanese banks.
Zaki, speaking in fear of the continuation of the banking situation as it is in Lebanon, in light of the restrictions imposed by banks to withdraw dollars in cash for Lebanese and others, including Syrians, so that it is not possible to withdraw more than $ 1000 per week at the moment, as part of a policy The Central Bank of Lebanon which is called «liquidity management» to maintain its reserves of the dollar.
He said: «It is not known what policy will be followed by the Central Bank of Lebanon this week in light of the repeated closure of the doors of Lebanese banks due to the protests, in order to avoid the rush of depositors to withdraw their deposits, which may lead to the fall of banks such as dominoes, and then you have one option to alternative It is bankruptcy ».
Zaki added: «Based on this policy, which is not officially announced by the Central Bank of Lebanon, but on the basis of administrative instructions, banks have stopped opening credits or making remittances outside Lebanon except for the financing of only three items, namely flour, fuel and medicines, which will lead to scarcity of food Imports such as meat and agricultural products such as potatoes, etc., will also reflect negatively on many productive sectors and will stop the laboratories for lack of raw materials, and will be forced to dismiss workers.
Regarding Syrian importers, researcher Leon Zaki said: «The declared secret is that Lebanon was and still is a window for Syria to convert the value of imports, and those amounts are currently frozen and can not transfer any amount outside Lebanon for any reason, which in turn will stop the Syrian imports of all items "It's not easy to find an alternative right now."
In light of the accumulation of the Lebanese crisis, its overlaps and its repercussions and the delay in the parliamentary consultations to form a new government, it fears that the Lebanese Central Bank may impose a financial measure called “Forced Debt Debt / Hair Cutting” if the Lebanese state decides to restructure its debt or change the scheduling and repayment operations. There is a recent talk among depositors and investors in Lebanon that this financial process, if applied, would devour 40% of the value of deposits, that is, the applicant worth $ 1 million would receive only $ 0.6 million, instead of losing the investor or debtor All that tires In the event of the bankruptcy of the bank, and considered the «liquidity management» Best of «forced an opponent of religion» because the first provides a monthly benefit of keeping a full deposit without any resolve, but the last Vtguetta decisive determinant of the deposit and the final.
He attributed what is happening in Lebanon economically, that its high debt, which is the third in the world «after its public debt amounted to $ 85 billion, and since Lebanon's annual income of $ 12 billion and spend 17 billion, the public debt is increasing 5 billion annually, in addition to the interest of debt The total value of imports is $ 20 billion compared to $ 3 billion worth of exports, a trade deficit of $ 17 billion annually.
He continued by saying: «The total deposits of all banks in Lebanon $ 170 billion, note that the GDP is $ 55 billion, and the difference between the two figures comes from non-Lebanese depositors, especially Syrians and other Arabs, while the total investment of banks in the central bank $ 110 billion, which amount The central bank paid to fill the state deficit, knowing that the capital of the central less than 40 billion dollars, or the central exposed to 70 billion dollars, and when the collapse will be deducted this amount of deposits, 70 billion from 170 billion and deposits become 100 billion at best, ie deducted from Deposits are 40 percent, which prompted the central However, as a suicide of Lebanon, known as Switzerland of the East and as a safe haven, it lost confidence that it is difficult to return, not even a decade later, after the country entered bankruptcy and avoiding collapse is almost impossible, as evidenced by Moody's downgrade. Lebanon's rating from Caa1 to Caa2 and its probation of cuts in the next three months, as the agency downgraded the country's three largest banks (Audi, Bloom and Byblos) - by assets - to higher risk levels.
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